Congress Lost – And it is a good thing for liberals

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2019 Indian parliamentary election results have been bone crushing and gloomy. Since, the ascent of Narendra Modi as PM in 2014 (largely explained through an anti-congress sentiment), this year many of us expected (at-least based on what we looked in our circles) that Modi will have reduced margin and most likely a coalition government. In reality, liberal expectations were decimated entirely.

What added salt to wounds, was election of a terror accused to indian parliament; To the same parliament that was saved by six bravehearts in 2002 from cowardly terror attacks. Everything about Pragya Thakur entering parliament indicates a complete breakdown of anti-terror consensus on religious lines.

Pragya Thakur is in the Parliament now, and democracy is in a wheelchair. 🙂 pic.twitter.com/h7uPOj7shW

— Sayantan Ghosh (@sayantansunnyg) May 25, 2019

There is no going back that this has been soul crushing defeat of liberals of all hues.

Personally, I have never been comfortable with advent of Narendra Modi. My discomfort largely emanated from the rapid exacerbation of dog-whistling of Indian muslims and othering of non-conforming Indians after his ascent in 2014. Mind you, this comes from a jubilant supporter of former BJP Prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee. I in 1999, at a young age of 21 wrote a glowing letter to editor of Outlook magazine defending ABV.

Can liberals wrest back the narrative?

There is no simple answer. But a good start comes from examining data.

Urban Story – Marginal recovery of Congress

Congress vote share increased in Urban areas since 2014 (18% to now 22%), while BJP Urban also increased from 28.8% in 2014 to 33.9%.

If one looks at urban India social media propaganda conversations, they had stopped being one way (BJP way). Mostly there was a tentative equilibrium. While there was opposition to Modi on ideological grounds, Rahul Gandhi and increasingly Arvind Kejriwal were being considered viable candidates. TINA + Balakot allowed Modi to still retain advantage.

Rural Story – BJP romps home by delivering economic benefits to rural India

Congress vote share remained stable in rural areas since 2014 (18% to now 17.5%), while BJP Rural vote share increased from 32% in 2014 to 39% in 2019

This is really where the actual story lies. Despite assertions of fights about secularism, Modi’s growth has effectively been powered by rural India through some populist left-wing welfare policies. One of my favorite elections time routines this time around was to watch lallantop series on youtube and their election travels across northern India. Based on the coverage a consistent feedback across UP (e.g.) was how rural India was consistently affirming benefits of Modi government’s economic schemes such as Ujjwala, Mudra,  electrification etc. Governance and economic benefits had given a distinct advantage of Narendra Modi in villages across North, West and Eastern India.

Can anti-muslim bigotry (or bigotry in general) be won politically?

याचना नहीं अब रण होगा

जीवन जय या की मरण होगा

Liberals have failed to understand that BJP’s hard right social conservatives supporters are not going to espouse to secular values any time soon. There has to a social reform to go to the root of why peddlers of hindu victimhood are able to convince about non existent grievances. Much of this creation of hindu victimhood and resultant bigotry is systematic and is created in the immediate environment (family/friends/society) of growing up years. While rise of Modi has made such bigotry exacerbated, it will expand unless trust is generated between communities on the ground.

Has liberal social agenda been defeated?

I will stick my neck out and say that liberal social agenda has actually become mainstream. Liberals rightly get triggered on anti-muslim bigotry but fail to see that many BJP supporters have become aligned on liberal agenda. I can count broad support on Article 377, equality of women, women education, uniform civil code, individual rights etc. Sometimes the fog of rampant anti-muslim bigotry by the far right-wing, makes liberals forget about the gains made in last couple of decades. Congress historically been marginally better than BJP for implementing liberal agenda. It is only now that it has turned more sympathetic to liberal issues compared to BJP.

Is Congress the vehicle for liberals?

There is no viable political outfit left apart from Congress that has a reasonable chance of gaining political power. However, to challenge BJP’s narrative, they need a new leadership rooted in patriotism and secular liberal values. Specifically someone who does not carry the baggage of the past. Vacating and ceding nationalist argument to BJP has costed Congress dearly. However, that is not going to be enough for liberal strategy.

Liberal agenda and the fight against bigotry is not going to be won without wresting political power from BJP. And for that Congress has to actually wrest back power.

Can Congress gain a recovery?

If we relook look at vote share data, BJP had reached their limits in urban India and they needed an emotional issue like Hindu-Muslim and Pragya Thakur to keep up with their gains. However, their margins and victory is largely rural and based solidly on the left wing welfare state model.

Congress revival = Performance in states?

Unlike 2014, Congress in 2019 has a distinct advantage of having its state governments in Punjab, Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh in its weak area of North.  If congress performs well on economics and governance issues in these states, there is no reason for them not to create a firewall like Punjab. If it additionally gains power in Haryana and Maharastra, it might have just more than enough to deny Modi another shot at power in 2024.

Unfortunately for Congress, it has historically over-rotated on centralized cultural issues of hindu-muslim relations. They will need to go back to governance in states which is where they could wrest back power. Fighting modi in Center is just not going to cut it. They will do well to remember that Modi phenomenon was selling of a politician’s economic success inside a state.

Prologue

In Spite of all good intentions and strategies, liberal politics in this country is predicated so much on revival of congress. And with congress’s poor track record over the years, its revival and ability to perform is just as much as anyone’s guess.

 

PS:- I identify myself as a right wing liberal. Right wing on economics (Free market variety) and a social liberal (free speech, individual empowerment, tolerance etc.). I do not have a natural home in Indian political parties. Both main parties are left-wing on economics. While Congress leans social liberal (mocked as pseudo secular based on its past) while BJP has strong roots in social conservatism (with far right hatred tendencies)